Wednesday, February 13, 2013

In the long run we are all dead

I think, it is the most known Keynes‘s statement. He wrote this in his in 1923 in his work “Tract on Monetary Reform
The whole quote would sond „Now, in the long run this is probably true… But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead”

Keynes was complaining about the “classical” economics, that is, the ideas of the economists before him who believed that the market, if unhampered after a recession, could reduce or eliminate the unemployment associated with the business cycle.



Today the statement gets used in different contexts. If there is a sufficient long time horizon and the things get too complicated or unpredictable then the sentence “In the long run…” seems to be very useful.

But to handle company’s strategy like this could become quite dangerous. In these times the “long run” will decide about the successful companies and companies that will fail.

There is a current example in the smartphone world. We can still remember the huge success of the first device calls iPhone? And today the chart from Gartner was published.


The market development in the market is not really the best for Apple and actually it should be an alert for Apple if the business model and strategy is still the correct one.

But if you read the statement from the Apple CEO Tim Cook then you cannot get the feeling that he understands the situation… Or have he got more information and that is the reason for his self-confidence?

We will see… But, before all this can get real, I will use my iPhone anyway.